Hajira Hamid and Karin Astrid Siegmann
hajra@sdpi.org
Migration across national borders is increasingly being seen as a strategy to alleviate poverty, to reduce vulnerability to crises and to support recovery once a disaster – be it a flood, an accident, or a business failure – has struck. This article aims to shed some light on the relationship between transnational migration, vulnerability and resilience. Whereas vulnerability relates to potential physical, social, economic and other damage, resilience means the capacity to survive, adapt to and bounce back from crisis and disaster (IFRC, 2004). The paper looks at migration on different levels, from individual women and men moving or staying back migrating or staying home, to the national level where aggregate population and remittance flows are counted.
In the wake of the October 2005 earthquake, an SDPI study conducted by Suleri and Savage (2006), a summary of which is included in Box 1, illustrates how remittances played a pivotal role for protection and recovery in the disaster-struck areas of Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP).
BOX 1A large number of people from the earthquake-affected areas live abroad. For instance, Gazder (2003) reports that one in ten households in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) receive remittances. Remittances represent up to a quarter of all monthly income in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK). In the villages in Districts Bagh and Muzaffarabad (AJK) and Batagram and Mansehra (NWFP) in which the study took place, 15 to 100 per cent of households were dependent on remittances. The earthquake led to widespread damage and destruction inflicted on the people and the local economy. It killed over 73,000 and affected more than three million people. An estimated 600,000 homes, 6,000 schools and 500 health facilities were destroyed. However, households whose livelihoods included remittances appeared to have been less vulnerable to the effects of the earthquake. Most of them had used the cash remitted by household members to stabilize their houses. Whereas the 7.6 magnitude shock turned their neighbors’ mud and stone houses into rubble, a larger proportion of the cement mortar houses of migrant-sending families withstood the quake. Although remittance flows were severely disrupted by the earthquake, they recovered relatively quickly. These external sources of income also played a vital role in the recovery after the disaster. In the immediate aftermath of the earthquake, most of those affected were in need of food, warm clothing and shelter to protect themselves against the upcoming Himalayan winter, regardless of whether they had formerly received remittances or not. Money sent by household members outside the affected area enabled households to repair and reconstruct their homes much more easily than families without migrant members. It also meant that they had cash to pay for private health care in order to treat injuries caused by falling walls or roofs. By contrast, many households without access to remittances were compelled to rely on the much poorer public health care. In some cases, they had to sell off their meager remaining assets to pay for the treatment. In addition, remittance money made it easier for families to reach distribution points for relief aid as they could afford the travel from remote rural areas. The revival of remittance systems after the earthquake also helped restore local markets, and the spending of remittances on housing repairs has provided crucial wages for local laborers. |
| Source: Suleri & Savage (2006) |
Conditions in developing countries like Pakistan are quite volatile. Most families in the rural and urban sectors alike exist close to subsistence level; poor households face serious risks to their well-being. In addition to poor health indicators, the climatic risks from crop failure, drought, and other natural disasters - as illustrated by the example above - as well as the social and economic transformations that occur during development and modernization, create a very uncertain environment. Especially in a rural setting, where weather-related problems are linked to poorly developed labor and other markets, a stable single source of income is not easily accessible. These risks at the individual, household and local levels are compounded by weak and, resultantly, unstable governments. It is no surprise that the Failed State Index 2006 ranks Pakistan number nine amongst the world’s top ten failed states (Fund for Peace, 2006). All 10 members are developing or least-developed countries. Migration of family members, especially across national boundaries, is seen as a strategy to address these risks.
In economic theory, Michael P. Todaro (1969) in his seminal work on labor migration in less developed councountries, regarded wage differentials as the main motivating force behind migration. The so-called Harris-Todaro model is an important formulation of the role of economic incentives in the decision to migrate. Katz & Stark (1986), on the contrary, see a broader set of motives than higher wage levels in the migrants’ decisions about where to settle. The authors look at migration as a strategy to diversify risk. In the same way that investors spread their portfolio holdings to limit risks, families ‘distribute’ working household members to income-generating activities in different places. In contrast to sources of income in rural settings in developing countries, where a crop failure also means that fewer daily laborers will be employed and decreased purchasing power will reduce the local shopkeepers’ business, international borders make earnings at home and abroad independent of each other. Foreign migration may thus be interpreted as a way of reducing risk and, resultantly, vulnerability, even if there were no differential in earnings.
Globally, some 175 million people lived outside their country of origin in 2002, and this figure is projected to reach 230 million by 2050 (UNFPA, 2004). Globally, some 175 million people lived outside their country of origin in 2002, and this figure is projected to reach 230 million by 2050 (UNFPA, 2004). About 4 million1 Pakistanis - most of them men - earn their living abroad. Whereas Pakistan's surplus workers earlier migrated to the UK and other Western countries, the oil boom in the 1970s opened greater avenues of labor migration to the Middle East.
| Figure 1: Distribution of Transmigrant Pakistanis by Region, 2004 (%) |
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| Source: Overseas Pakistan Foundation (2005) |
Although labor migration to the Middle East has passed its peak, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are still the most important host countries for Pakistani workers abroad (Figure 1) and rank second and third in financial terms.
As emphasized in the case study and theoretical approaches outlined above, one of the main aspects of migration is remittances. Following Todaro’s interpretation, through migration, additional funds can be secured for the individual and his or her household. This is backed by evidence from Pakistan and abroad. For many people in the least developing countries, remittances are critical for meeting the basic needs of households – including food, housing, clothing, health and education (Van Door, no date). Remittances to low-income countries were larger as a share of GDP and imports than were those to middle income countries. For example, in the poor Caribbean state of Haiti, remittances represent about 17 per cent of GDP. In Somalia, following the collapse of a formal government in the early 1990s, remittances from the Somali diaspora based in the Gulf States as well as countries in Europe and North America, became a critical survival resource for many families (Kapur, 2004). This is widely assumed to have reduced poverty levels. According to a World Bank simulation, an increase in the share of remittances in a country’s GDP by one tenth would result in a 1.6% reduction in the number of people living in poverty in that country (World Bank, 2003). Transnational migration from Pakistan has been fetching a large amount of foreign exchange in the form of remittances.
| Figure 2: Remittances, exports, FDI and official development aid flows to Nepal, 2000-2004 (million USD) |
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| Source: World Bank (2006) |
During the last fiscal year, workers' aggregate remittances surpassed USD 4 billion (OPF, 2005). This is about half the export income during the same period.
Remittance flows are not only the second-largest source of external funding for developing countries behind foreign direct investment (FDI), they are also more stable than private capital flows. While the latter tend to rise during favorable economic cycles and fall in bad times, remittances, by contrast, are less volatile and may even rise in response to economic cycles in the recipient country. For example, remittances to developing countries continued to grow steadily in 1998–2001, whie remittancs continued to rise ( Kapur, 2004).
Despite the comparative dependence on external aid flows, Nepal’s remittances have overtaken them in recent years (Figure 2). Whereas export volatility reflects the political instability during the past years, remittances have over-compensated the decline. Katz & Stark (1986) in their interpretation of remittances as a risk-reducing strategy, focused on the household level. The role of remittances during and after the 2005 earthquake in Pakistan provides an illustration for the related reduction in household’s vulnerability. Beyond the household level, this effect is also evident at the level of the macro-economy and explains policy makers’ interest in migration management and remittance management.
This dependence also affects the level of the household. Rather than supporting diversification, as predicted in theory, poor households often become economically dependent on remittance flows as indicated in the case study above, albeit in a post-disaster situation. |
Despite these real and perceived benefits of migration for the individual, household and the state, there is also a downside of transnational migration. Risks are not only addressed by but can also originate from cross-border movements. In particular, female family members who stay back may become very dependent on their male (agnate) relatives for protection and for loans. Rogaly & Rafique (2003) find that women in households with a single male earner rely more heavily than others on social relations outside their household to keep things going during their husband’s absences. This dependence also affects the level of the household. Rather than supporting diversification, as predicted in theory, poor households often become economically dependent on remittance flows as indicated in the case study above, albeit in a post-disaster situation. If the migration opportunities themselves, or the cash flows they generate, prove to be unreliable, new crises can occur. This was seen during the 2005 earthquake. Immediately after the disaster, the communication and financial infrastructure of the affected areas collapsed and it took some time before it could be restored to re-establish remittance flows, amongst other things. Hence, the remittance dependent households’ vulnerability actually increased during this time period (Suleri & Savage, 2006). Siegmann & Steimann (2005) find irregular remittances to represent one of the major financial crises for households in rural NWFP.
Risks may arise for physical and mental health of both of the migrants themselves or their household members who stay back. Kaspar (2005) shows for the case of Nepali out-migrants that male migration to India or the Middle East may be a double-edged sword for their wives. Together with increased decision-making power in the household, their work burden also increases. The ‘Dubai chalo!’ slogan of Pakistani migrants to the Gulf states has become the label for a socio-psychological stress syndrome. It manifests itself in disorientation resulting from social isolation, culture shock, harsh working conditions and the sudden acquisition of relative wealth (CIA World Factbook, no date).
Ageing populations, the incorporation of women into the labor market and the lack of public services for the care of dependants in industrialized countries, has resulted in the migration of – mainly female - care providers from poor countries, such as Sri Lanka and the Philippines. Ehrenreich and Hochschild (2003 in Ramirez, Dominguez & Morais, 2005) coined the phrase ‘global care chains’ to describe the importation of care from developing to developed countries. However, especially for the migrants’ families, the labor export to smooth financial flows may imply the import of psycho-social problems. Literature about global care chains is infused with debates about what happens to children and the elderly who are left behind.
Mobile populations, including labor migrants, are more likely to have unsafe sex, increasing the risk of HIV/AIDS infection. Although, with around 3,000 cases reported since 1986, HIV/AIDS is not a dominant epidemic in Pakistan, patriarchal gender norms that make it difficult for women to demand safe sex make it a high risk country2. The health-related risks have an obvious economic dimension if the outbreak of the illness leads to the inability to work and earn an income.
At the level of developing states, the migration of skilled workers - the so-called ‘brain drain’ - is another major piece of the migration debate. Clearly, the international mobility of skilled workers is a crucial issue for middle- and low-income countries, mainly because their share of well-educated workers remains low compared with that of high-income countries. Through the brain drain to the industrialized countries, they lose the skilled labor force that is crucial for their development. This phenomenon is massive in small and poor developing nations – with over 50 per cent of college graduates leaving countries in the Caribbean and Central America. In some of them, the figure is as high as 80 per cent (World Bank, 2005 in Docquier & Marfouk, 2006). Paradoxically, then, a strategy that might buffer economic risks for individuals and households leaves developing states even more vulnerable.
The evidence presented above highlights the fact that the continuing preoccupation of states with managing migration flows can be at odds with the development agenda. Transnational migration has the capacity for individuals and households and for developing countries to improve their socio-economic conditions and protect themselves against volatile political, economic and social conditions. However, a shift in focus from financial flows to migrants’ moves reveals that, just as migration can address the risks of poor and vulnerable households, in certain cases, there is an importation of risk along with resilience. The increasing mobility of laborers can lead to the spread of highly infectious diseases like HIV/AIDS and households’ increased dependence on remittances has meant a brain drain from developing countries.
Hence, the challenge is to take a holistic view of migrants’ livelihoods rather than focus on financial flows alone. This also calls for a shift in the research agenda, taking multi-local livelihoods and their consequences for the individual, the household, community and the state into account. Given the diversity and volume of migration flows, it is important that states come up with a coherent migration policy so that potentials for reducing vulnerability and strengthening resilience can be identified and tapped. Similarly, migration-related risks at various levels should not be ignored but require mitigation strategies by the government, civil society, and other stakeholders.
CIA World Factbook (no date) Pakistan impact of migration to the Persian Gulf countries, available at: http://www.photius.com/countries/pakistan/society/pakistan_society_impact_of_migration_~10379.html
Docquier, F. & Marfouk, A. (2006) International Migration by Educational Attainment 1990-2000 in Ozden, C. & Schiff, M. (eds.) International Migration, Remittances and the Brain Drain, World Bank & Palgrave Macmillan.
Fund for Peace (2006) Failed State Index 2006, available at: http://www.fundforpeace.org/programs/fsi/fsindex2006.php
Gazder, H. (2003) A Review of Migration Issues in Pakistan, Paper presented at the Regional Conference on Migration, Development and Pro-Poor Policy Choices in Asia, Refugee and Migratory Movements Research Unit, Bangladesh, and the Department for International Development, UK, 22–24 June, 2003 in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Available at: http://www.livelihoods.org/hot_topics/docs/Dhaka_CP_4.pdf
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Kaspar, H. (2005) “I am the household head now!” Gender aspects of out-migration for labour in Nepal, Kathmandu: Nepal Institute for Development Studies.
Katz, E. & Stark, O. (1986) Labor Migration and Risk Aversion in Less Developed Countries, Journal of Labor Economics, 4 (1): 134-149.
Overseas Pakistan Foundation (OPF) (2005) Overseas Pakistan Foundation Yearbook, Available at: http://www.opf.org.pk/opd/yearbk/YEARBK.pdf
Rogaly, B. & Rafique, A. (2003) Struggling to Save Cash: Seasonal Migration and Vulnerability in West Bengal, India, Development and Change.34(4): 659-681.
Siegmann, K. A. & Steimann, B. (unpublished draft 2005) Vulnerability and resilience in rural North-West Pakistan, available at:
http://www.nccr-pakistan.org/publications_pdf/Gender/VulnerabilityPaper_Draft.pdf
Suleri, A. & Savage, K. (2006) Remittances in Crisis: A Case Study from Pakistan, Humanitarian Policy Group, London: Overseas Development Institute
Todaro, M. P. (1969) A Model of Labor Migration and Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Countries, The American Economic Review, 59 (1): 138-148.
United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and International Migration Policy Program (2004) Meeting the Challenges of Migration - Progress since the ICPD, available at:
http://www.unfpa.org/upload/lib_pub_file/334_filename_migration.pdf
Van Door, J (no date) Migration, Remittances and Small Enterprise Development, Geneva: ILO.
World Bank (2003) International Migration, Remittances and Poverty in Developing Countries, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 3179
World Bank (2005) Preventing HIV/AIDS in Pakistan, available at:
http://www.worldbank.org.pk/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/
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PK:141137~piPK:217854~theSitePK:293052,00.html
World Bank (2006) World Development Indicators 2006, Washington DC: International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank, available at: http://devdata.worldbank.org/wdi2006/contents/index.htm
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