Decision-Making under Uncertainty: Bridging data gaps for effective energy planning (PB - 74)

Decision-Making under Uncertainty: Bridging data gaps for effective energy planning (PB - 74)

Publication details

  • Thursday | 19 Nov, 2020
  • Hina Aslam, Aneeque Ahmed Mir
  • Policy Briefs/Papers
  • 172
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Abstract Owing to the absence of research collaboration between government and academia, electricity demand forecasting in Pakistan has long inculcated forecasting errors due to data inconsistencies and modeling approaches. Such forecast discrepancies even within defined error margins can amount to a multifold of a whole sector-level energy demand. Since point forecasts, as being currently practiced, provide a single forecasted value without predefined error margins, forecasters must conduct probabilistic forecasts instead of attaining reliable confidence intervals. In case of faulty forecasts, every extra unit produced bears an economic cost. This factor must be addressed while designing energy policies to avoid unnecessary financial burdening of country’s economy. Effective energy policy making can be conceived by developing a coalition between government and academia for collaborative research. To assist such coalitions further, a centralized and publicly available data base needs to be developed for a consistent data input for Pakistan’s electricity forecast models. Moreover, the Government of Pakistan must assist synergizing with international donors and agencies to accelerate collaborative research efforts.