Sep 11 - Sep 13
9:00am to 5:00PM
Marriot Hotel, Islamabad

Visit for more details : http://www.summit.sdpi.org
Concept
Note
The
overarching theme of the Fifth South Asian Economic Summit (SAES-V) is “Making
Growth Inclusive and Sustainable in South Asia”. SAES-V is focused on framing
observations and recommendations for the 18th SAARC Meeting of Prime Ministers
to be held in Nepal. SAES was launched in 2008 with the objective of bringing
together leading academics, practitioners of public policy, members of the
business community and related stakeholders to discuss a regional approach to
issues of mutual concern and also to learn from home grown solutions to common
predicaments that can be replicated elsewhere in South Asia. This year’s SAES
seeks to involve politicians and civil-servants from member countries alongside
professional experts already involved in Track-I / Track-II level of South
Asian development agenda. This year the secretariat for organizing SAES-V is
SDPI, which is the oldest civil society think tank in Pakistan. For organizing
this Summit in Islamabad-Pakistan, SDPI has partnered with co-organizers across
South Asia which include Institute of Policy Studies (Sri Lanka), Research and
Information System for Developing Countries (India), South Asia Watch on Trade,
Economics and Environment (Nepal), and Center for Policy Dialogue (Dhaka).
Dates to Remember:
Submission
of Abstracts: 25 April 2012
Submission
of documents by Indian passport holders: 11 June 2012
Submission
of Conference papers: 13 August 2012
Submission
of Power Point Presentations: 28 August 2012
Fifth
South Asian Economic Summit: 11-13 September 2012
At
the time of writing of this concept note four key developments are taking place
on the global front. First we are being reminded that the effects of global
financial crisis are here to stay for a little longer. This has been validated
by the Euro zone crisis that has already started to impact South Asia. Second
is 17th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change held at Durban which is now being vowed as an important step
towards combating global climate change. The third development is regional in
nature carrying significant importance for South Asia’s future. The 17th Summit
of the heads of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) was held
in Maldives and witnessed signing of some important agreements between member
states. Finally and most concerning of all that economic growth in the South
Asian region has been projected to decline at least for the next two quarters.
We briefly discuss these four developments below in order to set in sequence
the priorities for the next South Asia Economic Summit.
The
origins of the Euro zone crisis were varied for the member countries. All sort
of problems collided to make a plethora of challenges for the governments – who
now had to deal with toxic financial assets, ballooning budget deficits and
restructuring of debt. But going forward some key challenges remain, for
example how to rebalance demand within a single currency block? A question
which has forced economic managers to rethink how member countries should be
selected to form a currency union. Whatever the current state of crisis it has
certainly started to impact the South Asian economies. India and Bangladesh
have officially reported the status on cancelled export orders. Pakistan is
fearing that migrant workers in EU may be laid off in big numbers which in turn
may result in a decline in future remittance inflows. Afghanistan has indicated
that aid flows from EU may be slashed on account of already high budget
deficits being faced by leading member states including France, Italy, and
Spain.
The
global financial crisis had put the climate change agenda on the backburner due
to the developed countries envisaging a downward pressure on (restoration of)
economic growth in case climate change commitments were observed. The
restructuring of economy into a low carbon mode will imply reduction of output
and employment growth in agriculture sub-sectors such as crops, forestry and
may be livestock. The Durban talks however led to an important intellectual
breakthrough towards resurrecting the climate change negotiations. The Durban
Platform for Enhanced Action aims at bringing all greenhouse-gas emitting
countries under a common legal regime by 2015. This legal understanding will
bind these countries to cut emissions by 2020. A group has been put in place to
provide proposals on the financing of Global Climate Fund that is planned to
provide $100 billion annually by 2020 to poor countries. Some decisions were
also taken with regards to the manner in which carbon offsets should be
allocated under the Clean Development Mechanism to carbon capture and storage
projects. Finally in the interest of capacity building of developing countries
a Climate Technology Center and Network will be established which will ensure
systematic transfer of technology.
There
have been interesting developments at the regional front during the past few
months. The 17th SAARC Summit held in Maldives ended on an upbeat note. Several
agreements were signed which included the SAARC agreement on Rapid Response to
Natural Disasters, the SAARC agreement on Multilateral Arrangement on
Recognition of Conformity Assessment, the SAARC Seed Bank Agreement and the
SAARC Agreement on Implementation of Regional Standards.
A
strong resolve was exhibited to continue efforts towards finalizing framework
for improving connectivity through rail and sea which will ultimately also
result in a regional railways agreement. It was decided that by the end of next
year formalization of Indian Ocean Cargo, Motor Vehicle agreement and Passenger
Ferry Service will also be completed. A demo run of a Bangladesh-India-Nepal
container train will soon be initiated. Increased interest was indicated
towards inter-governmental agreement for energy cooperation and regional power
exchange.
While
the usual emphasis on the implementation of South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA)
was reiterated, it was highlighted that there are significant barriers to
intra-regional trade which are hurting producers as well as consumers in the
region. A focused effort is required to slash the number of items under
sensitive lists, harmonize standards and customs processes, and eliminate
non-tariff barriers.
In
view of the above mentioned two largest countries in the SAARC region came
forward with positive steps in order to prove their seriousness towards the
regional cooperation agenda. Pakistan announced that it was ready to provide
most favored nation status to India and will also reduce its sensitive list by
20 percent and allow tariff concessions on further 233 items under SAFTA by
February 2012. India also announced that its sensitive list for LDCs will now
be limited to 25 items.
Going
forward the key challenge faced by several South Asian economies will be to
restore and sustain economic growth and put it on an inclusive path. In the
wake of Euro zone crisis, international and national projections indicate a
downward pressure on growth in SAARC member countries. In India the high
interest rates which were maintained to tame inflation have resulted in
discouraging investment and have particularly hurt the performance of
industrial sector. The Indian economy is exposed to the troubles facing
European financial sector which in turn has also put the Indian currency under
pressure.
In
case of Bangladesh growth in the real sector has been cradled through market
access to readymade garments and rising inflow of remittances. However growth
in foreign direct investment, move towards value addition in exports and
diversification in overall structure of growth has been slow to come by due to
issues related to security, governance, tax structure and vulnerability to
natural disasters. These factors threaten the sustainability of growth in the
longer term and will also pose challenges to policy objectives related to
poverty and inequality improvements.
A
similar story in Pakistan suggests that growth will remain depressed on account
of energy crisis facing the industrial sector. Furthermore the negative
repercussions of war on terror are thought to keep foreign and domestic
investment growth at low levels. The country has benefitted on account of
remittances and rising export prices – a trend which is forecasted to saturate
in the coming days. To add to these difficulties the country has been facing
floods on recurrent basis which have caused loss of agricultural activity and
displacement of substantial number of people in Punjab and Sindh.
Finally
most of these economies are dependent on proceeds from Diaspora, bilateral
inflows of foreign assistance, export receipts from commodity based items – all
of which are prone to volatility in the wake of Euro zone crisis, lack of
consensus on global initiatives on trade, investment and climate change, war on
terror, and increased political instability in several SAARC member countries.
These and other issues that arise from decades-old political differences in
this region require a collective solution. There has never been a more
important time to consider a regional approach towards common objectives of
inclusive and sustainable growth which can in amalgam with micro-level
interventions lead to welfare improvement for the people of South Asia.
Visit for more details : http://www.summit.sdpi.org