Concept Note:

Under the initiative of Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) to assist governments in making informed policy decisions, the Government of Pakistan expressed its interest in developing Pakistan’s roadmap for Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7. In this regard, ESCAP initiated the roadmap development process using National Expert SDG Tool for Energy Planning (NEXSTEP) model with Private Power and Infrastructure Board (PPIB), Ministry of Energy (Power Division) as the government focal agency and Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) as the national partner. The roadmap development process was initiated in December 2021 and after extensive data collection, series of stakeholder consultations, and scenario-based modeling through Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP), the roadmap was developed and presented by ESCAP’s energy division at COP27 in collaboration with PPIB and SDPI. This launch event would aim to present the key

results and findings of the final roadmap to all relevant stakeholders and identify the challenges in implementing the proposed actions. Energy access and affordability challenges in Pakistan due to geopolitical turmoil Conflict between Ukraine and Russia had immediate consequences on energy supply chain disruption across the world. While this conflict imperiled the economic recovery from COVID19 pandemic; inflation, energy and food security, and further supply chain pressures are still among the key challenges faced by the decision makers. At the same time, the political urgency to diversify and reduce dependency on imports from these two countries has the potential to seriously impact and even derail plans for the transition to clean energy. For developing countries such as Pakistan, the average GDP growth in 2022 has slowed by 0.5% while its share that is being spent on energy-end uses has increased from around 9% in 2020 to over 16% in 20221 . This economic impact has further trickled down to the consumer end where an average household is spending around 20% more income on energy products as compared to the previous year. This is mainly being driven by increased fuel cost due to which electricity prices in Pakistan have increased from PKR 14.5/kWh in 2019 to almost PKR 25/kWh in 2022 (depicting a percentage increase of almost 72.5%)2. Resultantly, Pakistan experienced a rising inflation up to 27.26% (year on year basis) in August 2022 that remained as high as 24% till September 20223. Energy and food prices contribute 35- 45% to this overall inflation Coupled with socio-economic developments hindered by COVID19 pandemic, Ukraine Russia conflict has also detailed countries from their 2030 targets of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). As of 2021, almost 670 million people were expected to be without the access of electricity by 2030, which is 10 million more than anticipated before the outbreak of pandemic. The gap was further widened since 2022 conflict as 20 countries with least access to electricity holds 76% of the population. Almost 90 million of population in Asia and Africa that had electricity access are no longer able to afford it5. The increased focus towards coal-based power in Pakistan also provides a major threat that further investments in new fossil fuel infrastructure might lock-in uneconomic practices, perpetuate existing risks and increase the threats of climate change, thus eventually derailing the country from its climate goals. Scope and Objectives of the meeting Addressing the energy sector challenges highlighted above is imperative to ensure Pakistan’s progress towards achieving its SDG7 targets by 2030. With a boarder focus on potential policy

solutions; Private Power and Infrastructure Board (PPIB), Ministry of Energy (Power Division); United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP); and Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), Islamabad aims to bring together key stakeholders to discuss following questions:

• How is the current increase in energy prices impacting Pakistan’s energy access and
• affordability as well as its headline inflation?
• What are the best policy and technological solutions that can be replicated by Pakistan to address its current energy crisis?
• What are the low hanging fruits which Pakistan must address to achieve the targets prescribed under SDG7?