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Slideshare

Published Date: Mar 5, 2013

SDPI Political Barometer: A Study of Socio-Political Preferences of People of Pakistan

POLITICAL
BAROMETERA Study of Socio-PoliticalPreferences of People ofPakistan

Background.First
civilian government completing it’s term• Chief Election Commissioner appointed
through parliamentary consensus for the first time in the country’s history•
Caretaker government to be decided in consultation instead of being chosen by
the president

The
Political Barometer Survey• Covers a wide range of socio-political indicators•
Conducted across broad sections of the society• Rapid assessment around 1,300
respondents in 52 districts, reflecting on issues like electoral reform,
governance, security, interprovincial relations, arts and culture, civil
rights, and foreign policy• Strata take account of ethno-linguistic lines
instead of the traditional provincial demarcation

Sampling•
Demographic sample based on the population census of the Pakistan Bureau of
Statistics• Stratified Sampling ▫ Ethno-linguistic ▫ Gender ▫ Urban/Rural ▫ Age
▫ Income ▫ Educational qualification

Questionnaire,
interviews, andchallenges• Both open-ended as well as close-ended questions to
minimize biases• Conducted in 52 districts across Balochistan, FATA, Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, and Sindh• Occasional reluctance and difficulty by
respondents to respond to a few questions• The data was verified through
randomly contacting reluctant respondants• Respondents’ understanding of
technical terms like MFN

Issues
Electoral Process Civil Military Corruption Relations Inter- Foreign provincial
Policy relations Political Internal Economy Security

Electoral
Process Most transparent party while contesting elections Others PPP 25% 24%
PMLN PTI 24% 27%

Least
transparent party while contesting elections Others 24% PPP 41% MQM 19% PMLN
16%

Decision
to vote despite doubts about the electoral process Maybe 26% Yes 53% No 21%

Corruption
Responses on the most corrupt party Others 18% MQM 16% PPP 56% PMLN 10%

Responses
on political party that will end/reduce corruption, if in power Others 18% PPP
23% PTI PMLN 34% 25%

Decision
to vote: will it be based on levels of corruption within a political party?
Maybe 24% Yes No 60% 16%

Foreign
Policy Preferences for Pakistan to have strong strategic alliance with the US
Maybe Yes 32% 33% No 35%

Are
drone attacks infringement on Pakistans sovereignty? Maybe 19% No 11% Yes 70%

Does
Pakistan require foreign aid? Maybe 26% Yes 37% No 37%

Relations
with neighbors Preference to vote for a party that… Opposes peaceful ties
with India 17% Maintains a neutral stance 38% Pledges peaceful ties with India
28% A partys stance on relations with India will not factor in my decision
making 17%

Should
Pakistan promote a government favourable to its own interests in Afghanistan?
Maybe Yes 32% 33% No 35%

Party
that can best handle Pakistans foreign affairs Others 20% PPP 30% PTI 21% PMLN
29%

Internal
Security Governments engagement with Taliban should focus on… Other 1%
Negotiation Negotiation and military 36% action 39% Military action 24%

Party
that can best counter religious violence PPP Others 24% 30% PMLN PTI 26% 20%

Party
that can best counter sectarian violence PPP 22% Others 32% PMLN 24% PTI 22%

Political
Economy Economic issues facing Pakistan Unemploym Others ent 23% 21% Foreign
debt Energy burden shortage 12% 19% Inflation Currency 12% devaluation 13%

Pressing
issues based on educationlevelsHigher Levels of Education Lower Levels of
Education• Extremism • Inflation• Political instability • Gender•
Interprovincial discrimination problems • Food shortages

Sectors
needing increase in govt. expenditure 12%10% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7%

Sectors
needing reduction in govt. expenditure 10% 10% 9% 9%8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 6%

Most
effective party to address Pakistans economic problems Others 22% PPP 27% PTI
25% PMLN 26%

Provincial
Matters Pakistans interprovincial relations are… No opinion 36% Disharmonio
us 42% Harmonious 22%

Support
for creation of new provinces Maybe 26% Yes 36% No 38%

Power:
equitabledistribution between all provinces? Maybe Yes 19% 12% Water: equitable
distribution No between all provinces? 69% Maybe Yes 20% 17% No 63%

Is
food distribution across provinces fair? Maybe Yes 24% 21% No 55%

Party
that will be most effective in addressing provincial problems Others PPP 25%
26% PTI 23% PMLN 26%

Civil-military
relations Most powerful institution in Pakistan 11% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8%
8% 8% 1%

Women
What should be Government policy on women contesting elections? Remain neutral
Ban it 15% 19% Promote it 66%

What
should be Government’s Stance onwomens purdah outside their homes? Ban it 11%
Remain neutral 36% Promote it 53%

What
should be Government policy on women working alongside men in workplaces?
Remain Ban them neutral 26% 26% Actively promote them 48%

Preference
in education should be for… Girls Neither Boys 6% 1% 5% Both 88%

Governments
policy on co-education should be… Remain neutral Ban it 25% 29% Actively promote
it 46%

Should
women have the right to divorce? Maybe 21% Yes 39% No 40%

Opinions
on domestic violence Sometimes No opinion justified, som 5% etimes unjustified
16%Acceptable 2% Unacceptable 77%

Opinions
on honour killings No opinion 7% Acceptable Sometimes 11%justified, som etimes
unjustified 19% Unacceptable 63%

Lifestyle
and cultural issues influencing voter’s preference Its policy on women
contesting elections Others 15% 33% Its policy on coeducation 14% Its policy on
purdah Its policy on 14% performing arts Its policy on 13% women working
alongside men 11%

Minorities
Should non-Muslims have rights equal to the rights of Muslims in Pakistan?
Maybe 15% No 13% Yes 72%

Should
non-Muslims have freedom to practice their religion in Pakistan? Maybe 10% No
8% Yes 82%

Should
there be a separate voters list for minorities in Pakistan? Maybe 28% Yes 34%
No 38%

Opinions
on the fairness and justness of blasphemy laws in Pakistan Maybe 23% Yes 38% No
39%

Voting
trends Party support within each age bracket* PPP PMLN PTI Others 18% 26% 27%
25% 8% 23% 19% 18% 46% 22% 28% 24% 27% 32% 28% 28% 18-35 36-50 51-70 70+*Does
not include respondents who selected no party

Party
support across different ethnicities PPP PML-N PTI ANP BNP-Mengal 44% 11% 55%
46% 44% 43% 47% 34%Sindhi Seraiki Hindko Punjabi Pakhtun Baloch

Voting
trends vis-à-vis voting history• Vote bank for PML-N
à Stagnant• Vote bank for PPP à Declined• Vote bank for PTI à Stronger urban base

Parties
supporters by monthly family income PPP PMLN PTI MQM JI PMLQAbove Rs. 100,000
1% 3% 6% 9% 5% 3%Rs. 45,000-100,000 2% 5% 10% 16% 8% 13%Rs. 10,000-45,000 53%
55% 59% 50% 57% 41%Rs. 10,000 or less 44% 37% 26% 25% 30% 44%

 PPP ▫ Roughly one-third of the respondents
earning below Rs. 30,000 indicate a preference for PPP ▫ Reinforces the
pro-poor image of the party ▫ Support from those earning over Rs. 30,000
dropped to 10.8%• PML-N ▫ Support appears similar across all income groups• PTI
▫ 33% of those earning over Rs. 250,000 intend to vote for the party

MQM
▫ 33% of those earning over Rs. 250,000 intend to vote for the party ▫ Only 4%
of those earning between Rs. 100,000 and 250,000 expressed intention to vote
for the party ▫ Below 100K• Support for smaller parties appears to weaken as
income level rises• PTI eroding PPP votebank

The
5 Scenarios

Scenario
1• IF: ▫ Electoral alliance between PPP and its current allies, ANP, MQM, and
PML-Q ▫ Anti-PPP alliance at the same time: PML- N, JUI, JI, minus PTI• THEN: PPP
and alliance may capture 38.1% of the vote ▫ Anti-PPP alliance, minus PTI, may
secure 29.5% ▫ Together with the PTI, the anti-PPP alliance may give a tougher
time to PPP

Scenario
2• IF: ▫ PPP partners with current allies – ANP and PML-Q ▫ MQM opts for the
anti-PPP alliance; PTI decides not to be part of either• THEN: ▫ PPP and allies
secure 33.9% of the votes ▫ Opposition alliance secures 33.7% of the votes ▫
Weaker government against a stronger opposition• Option 1: ▫ PML-N led govt.:
PPP and PTI form opposition• Option 2: ▫ PPP led govt.: PML-N and PTI form
opposition

Scenario
3• IF: ▫ Electoral alliance between PPP and current allies – ANP, MQM, and
PML-Q ▫ Opposing alliance between PML-N and PTI• THEN: ▫ PML-N and PTI jointly
sweep through, capturing 45.0% of the votes
à
relatively stable govt. at the centre ▫ Anti-PPP parties may also join in

Scenario
4• IF: ▫ Electoral alliance between PPP and PTI ▫ PML-N led strong opposing
alliance• THEN: ▫ PPP and PTI secure 49.3% of the votes
à stable govt. at the centre

Scenario
5• IF: ▫ PPP-led coalition with current allies ▫ PTI and JI partner for an
alliance ▫ PML-N led alliance with JUI and other anti-PPP parties• THEN: ▫ PPP
and allies secure 38.1% of the votes ▫ PTI and JI alliance secures 23.9% ▫
PML-N led alliance secures 25.9%

What
is expected…• Scenarios 3 and 4 unlikely• Elections unlikely to be dominated by
a single political party• PPP may have to continue with its current alliance•
An emerging PTI• Likelihood of a strong opposition high• Electorate divided
over ‘crucial’ issues