Team Member: Gulbaz Ali Khan, Fayyaz Yaseen, Muhammad Tahir Ali
Pakistan in general and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) in particular witnessed a significant increase in incidences of terrorism and insurgency during the last ten years or so. However, these reached their climax in 2007 in the form of bombings of public installations, schools, places of worship and hospitals, and terrorism of all kinds. The epicenter of the catastrophe was the tribal areas comprising Malakand and Federally Administered Area of KP. The government first tried to solve the problem by negotiations with the insurgents but when failed in peaceful settlements, it had to resort to military action in the tribal areas to suppress the terrorism and rebellion.
Military action resulted in a mass exodus of population overwhelmingly within different parts of the province. The militancy and counter action by the army to repress insurgency inflicted human cost and material loss of great magnitude in almost all segments of the economy including governance and environment in these areas. These damages and the complexities involved in militancy were on such a wide scale and intensity that the episode besides leaving many areas for research needed the assessment study to gauge the losses incurred and the cost of rehabilitation.
The government, therefore, had to seek the assistance also of the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank in April 2009 to assess the damages, rehabilitation cost and the strategies and policies to comprehensively address the issues responsible for the crisis. Both these organization launched two studies; the first one was to conduct the study on ‘Preliminary Damage and Need Assessment’ (DNA) with the primary objectives of assessing the damages in the sectors affected due to militancy along with its background and quantification of the immediate and medium term reconstruction and recovery cost in Malakand Division (Buner, Lowe Dir, Upper Dir, Shangla and Swat) of KP and two agencies of Bajaur and Mohmand in FATA.
While the second one initiated separately meant for ‘Post Crisis Need Assessment’ (PCNA) which deliberated on strategies to deal with the immediate post crisis transition and stabilization phase, medium term transformation as well as long-term institution building. The studies were undertaken on the basis of data provided by the Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the collaborative exercise accomplished by KP in the form of their documents i.e., ‘Malakand Compressive Stabilisation and Socio-economic Development Strategy’ and ‘Seizing Momentum Through CERINA: Early Recovery Priority Interventions in NWFP/FATA’. The DNA had mainly dealt with in detail the concerned subjects e.g., assessment of damages and recovery cost, amounting to US $ 227.5 million. The huge cost involved was that the militancy affected both the formal and informal sectors whose epicenter was Swat.
A number of national and international agencies came forward with programmes to assist with the rehabilitation of the affected and reconstruct the physical damages occurred in different sectors of the economy of the conflict ridden areas. The Strengthening Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS) Monitoring Project of UNDP- Planning and Development Department, KP, therefore, contemplated to conduct a comprehensive research study to find out the effect of militancy and the impact trend of rehabilitation activities. However, since the crisis which affected tribal areas has many dimensions, it was not found feasible to measure the actual impact of interventions at this stage. It was, therefore, planned to focus research only on two aspects i.e. effects of militancy and trends of rehabilitation.
- To empirically determine the effect of militancy on the socio-economic conditions in both the formal and informal sectors of Malakand.
- To determine the impact trend of the ongoing rehabilitation activities against the baseline provided by DNA.
As per terms of reference provided by the sponsoring agency, the study limited its scope only to Swat in the sectors covered by DNA. As a part of research methodology adopted for the study, a thorough review was made of the documents available on the issue including the above mentioned policy documents and study reports produced by the Government of KP, World Bank and Asian Development Bank. To gather empirical evidences, the research team conducted household and establishment surveys, based on 500 samples besides covering the responses of 50 children as samples for capturing the impact of militancy on the child population. The data and information collected through focused group discussion, after being tabulated was analyzed in context of the policies framed by Malakand Comprehensive Strategy and PCNA to evaluate the efficacy of the on-going programmes for rehabilitation of those affected and to serve as policy guideline for future planning. The work was completed in all respects by the end of December, 2011.
This conflict has affected the formal and informal sectors of the economy and on the basis of secondary information it is obvious that all districts have been affected, however, as per the Damage Need Assessment (DNA), District Swat has been the center of gravity.
Focus is to empirically determine the effects of militancy on the socio-economic conditions and to determine the impact trends of ongoing rehabilitation activities in Malakand Division against the baseline provided by DNA report. The underlying objectives of the study will be achieved by employing both quantitative and qualitative tools.