Social distancing in Pakistan: Estimates for lives it can save under different scenarios and dollar value of the saved lives (PR)

Social distancing in Pakistan: Estimates for lives it can save under different scenarios and dollar value of the saved lives (PR)

Publication details

  • Friday | 15 May, 2020
  • Sajid Amin Javed, Azad Haider
  • Policy Briefs/Papers
Download File

Abstract: This study used age specific Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) from China to make projections of possible deaths for Pakistan with and without social distancing. The difference between deaths with and without social distancing is the number of lives saved by the social distancing. Further, the study calculated the dollar value of saved lives using the Value of Statistical Life (VSL) method. Estimates show that the number of deaths in Pakistan without social distancing, including lockdown, would reach to 856528. Moderate lockdown, as practiced in Pakistan, may have saved 428264 lives. However, still, more than four hundred thousand lives can be at risk. The dollar value of saved lives can be somewhere between US$ 37.89 billion to US$ 129.81 billion for moderate social distancing and between US$ 68.21 billion to US$ 233.66 billion for strict lockdown depending upon the different VSL. We, therefore, recommend provincial governments in general and federal government in particular to take measures to ensure higher degree of social distancing immediately, otherwise the spread of infection and fatalities may increase exponentially.