In an age defined by geopolitical upheaval, economic fragility, and a desperate global quest for energy security, the partnership between Pakistan and the European Union is being tested through contesting lenses. The foundations of this relationship, carefully laid in the Strategic Engagement Plan (SEP) of 2019, were designed for a more predictable world. Today, they must withstand the pressures of a world in flux. The war in Ukraine, the ensuing energy crisis, and global inflationary trends have created a challenging international environment. While Pakistan’s own economic vulnerabilities are pronounced, it is struggling to strike a delicate balance with geographic compulsions and colocation with the world’s busiest Strait of Hormuz, and neighbours including China, India, Iran, and Afghanistan. This necessitates provision of a critical framework for understanding the way forward, illustrating how the EU’s past experiences can inform its future strategy with Pakistan vis-à-vis Pakistan’s expectations, compulsions and aspirations.
The SEP was a diplomatic achievement, signaling a mutual desire to move beyond a transactional relationship. It established a multi-tiered dialogue covering everything from security and trade to climate change and education. Analysts note that such an institutional frameworks “mirror successful EU engagement models with other regional partners,” creating a “comprehensive institutional framework for bilateral relations” that provides stability amid political transitions. This has been vital for Pakistan, demonstrating international acceptability and providing a steady partnership channel despite its internal political volatility. However, the “highly volatile global economic and energy environment” has starkly exposed the limitations of this framework, pushing both sides to adapt their theoretical cooperation to harsh yet evolving new realities.
The economic lifeline and its strings
At the heart of the economic relationship is the GSP+ status, extended until 2027. This trade arrangement has been a lifeline for Pakistan, making the EU its largest export destination and a critical source of foreign exchange at a time of severe economic stress. However, this dependency is a double-edged sword. As quite accurately observed by Rados?aw Fiedler, a professor of international relations such economic partnerships while “a stabilizing factor” also “create dependencies that may influence Pakistan’s foreign policy autonomy in regional matters.” This tension is profound and constrains Pakistan’s options. The EU leverages GSP+ to press for adherence to 27 international conventions on human rights and governance, yet Pakistan’s economic desperation, internal security vulnerabilities exacerbated by global inflation and soaring energy import bills, limit its capacity for rapid reform. The EU finds itself in a delicate position: how to use its economic leverage without pushing a financially fragile partner over the edge, potentially destabilizing the entire region.
This economic conditionalism intersects directly with Pakistan’s other major partnership: the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). As Pakistan deepens its economic and strategic ties with Beijing, Brussels (as well as Washington) watches with apprehension. It is, therefore, relevant to understand the EU’s approach to the region, which is clearly influenced by Washington’s pressures in the context of US-Iran relations in particular. It “differs from US maximum pressure strategies, favoring diplomatic engagement and economic incentives over coercive measures”. Rather than confronting Pakistan over its relationship with China, the EU seeks to present an alternative model of engagement; one based on rules, sustainability, and normative power. The success of this approach hinges on whether the EU can offer a package of investment, market access, and technology transfer that is compelling enough to balance China’s no-strings-attached allure, all within a global economy that is itself fragile and competitive.
Energy, climate, and a forced partnership of necessity
The global energy crisis has inadvertently carved out a new, crucial domain for cooperation: climate action and sustainable energy. Pakistan’s extreme vulnerability to climate change, tragically demonstrated by the recurring floods in 2022 and 2025, coincides with its profound energy insecurity. This creates a unique opportunity for the EU. As identified by Professor Osiewicz, “Pakistan’s vulnerability to climate change impacts, combined with its energy security challenges, creates opportunities for European technology transfer and investment in renewable energy sectors.” This is no longer just an item on the SEP agenda; it is a strategic imperative. For the EU, partnering with Pakistan on a green transition serves dual purposes: it advances its global climate diplomacy objectives and helps diversify energy strategies in a critical region. For Pakistan, access to European technology and investment in renewables is a path to reducing its crippling dependence on imported fossil fuels, enhancing its energy sovereignty, and building climate resilience. This area of cooperation has evolved from a normative goal to a practical necessity, driven by global volatility.
Security in the shadow of regional instability
Pakistan’s security vulnerabilities are inextricably linked to its South Asian neighborhood. The EU’s interest in this dimension is direct; instability in South Asia has tangible consequences for European security, from terrorism to migration. The ninth round of the EU-Pakistan Counter-Terrorism Dialogue is a testament to the institutionalization of this cooperation. This security partnership “serves both bilateral and regional stability objectives,” addressing not only traditional threats but also “emerging challenges such as cyber security and violent extremism.”
Here, EU’s engagement with Pakistan “demonstrates a shift towards comprehensive dialogue mechanisms that address both traditional security concerns and emerging challenges such as migration.” The EU has learned from its Middle Eastern engagements that security cooperation cannot be siloed. The Migration and Mobility Dialogue launched in 2022, is a prime example of this evolved thinking. Professor Osiewicz observed that a “pragmatic approach to managing migration flows while addressing Pakistan’s economic needs through legal migration pathways.” This acknowledges that European security is linked to Pakistani economic opportunity, and that managing complex issues like migration requires addressing their root causes through partnership, not just border control.
The democratic dilemma and navigating a complex region
Perhaps the most persistent challenge for the EU is balancing its foundational values with strategic interests. Pakistan’s complex civilian-military dynamics and periodic democratic backsliding test the EU’s commitment to its normative agenda. Professor Osiewicz contextualizes this perfectly, stating that the EU “faces the challenge of upholding conditionality principles while preserving important bilateral relationships with countries experiencing democratic backsliding.” This echoes the EU’s difficult balancing act with Turkiye. When pressing security concerns like counter-terrorism or regional stability are at stake, the EU often finds its vocal advocacy for democratic governance and human rights muted in high-level policy discussions. This creates a credibility gap that is not lost on Pakistani civil society or the wider international community.
Furthermore, Pakistan does not engage with the EU in a vacuum. Its fraught relationship with India, its complex ties with Iran, and its role in Afghanistan mean that Brussels must constantly calibrate its Pakistan policy against its broader interests in South Asia. The EU’s success is in comprehensive dialogue mechanisms. This requires a nuanced understanding that Pakistan’s foreign policy is a product of its precarious geography and its perception of threats, particularly from India. The EU’s ability to position itself as an honest broker, or at least a stable and predictable partner, amidst these regional tensions, will be critical to the long-term health of the relationship.
Forging a resilient partnership – the way forward
The trying times of economic and energy volatility are not a temporary disruption but the new normal. For the EU-Pakistan relationship to not just survive but thrive, both sides must embrace a more ambitious and pragmatic vision. The SEP provides the skeleton, but it needs flesh and blood in the form of concrete, actionable projects, particularly in the energy and climate domain. The EU must refine its use of economic incentives, recognizing Pakistan’s acute fragility while steadfastly upholding its values. Pakistan, for its part, must accelerate internal reforms to build a more stable, democratic, and economically resilient state that can be a more capable partner.
This is also a reminder for Pakistan that the EU has navigated complex partnerships before. The lessons from Iran, Turkiye, and the Middle East are clear: a strategy based solely on conditionality often fails, while one based on shared interests and sustained engagement has a greater chance of success. In this era of uncertainty, the resilience of the EU-Pakistan partnership will be a testament to both sides’ capacity for strategic patience, pragmatic compromise, and a clear-eyed focus on the common challenges—from climate change to regional instability—that bind them together in an increasingly fractured world.
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