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uper El Niño, developing in the Pacific Ocean, can potentially trigger extreme weather patterns globally, bringing deadly heatwaves, flooding, water scarcity and droughts, leading to agricultural losses, climate-induced displacement, health crises and food inflation. An 82 per cent chance of El Niño developing by July has been projected. According to the US Climate Prediction Centre, it is likely to intensify into a rare Super El Niño by the end of the year. There is a strong probability that this will worsen global warming and disrupt weather systems across Asia, Africa, the Americas and Europe.
Strong El Niño events are typically linked to extreme rainfall in some regions and severe droughts and wildfires in others.
Before we talk about what this entails for Pakistan, we need to understand what El Niño is. Consider the ocean as a slow, breathing monster that inhales warm water towards the west and exhales cold water along South America. The monster changes its mood once every 2-7 years. It gushes warm water east, the air above it grows restless and the weather that usually behaves, goes rogue. That’s El Niño, the climate mood swing that turns the tropical Pacific into a global weather influencer.
In technical terms, El Niño is a natural climate cycle that happens when the tropical Pacific Ocean warms enough to trigger shifts in wind patterns throughout the atmosphere. This has a ripple effect on weather conditions globally. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Centre predicts that there is a 2 in 3 chance that El Niño’s peak strength will be strong or very strong. Many people are calling it Super El Niño, which is not an official term, but reflects the intensity of the event.
Although stronger El Niño events are rare, three major Super El Niño events have occurred in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16. These events caused severe flooding and droughts, intense heatwaves, crop failures, coral bleaching, increased wildfires and disruption to fisheries and water systems.
Forecast models suggest parts of South Asia could experience harsh heatwaves and disruptions to monsoon patterns. Drought and wildfire threats may increase in some regions. Other areas could face heavier rainfall and flooding.
In South Asia, these historical events brought monsoon irregularities, heatwaves and droughts. Very little information is available regarding the impacts of the 1997-98 El Niño on Pakistan, but a severe, prolonged drought was observed in Balochistan, reduced rainfall in Sindh, dry conditions in southern Punjab and variable snowmelt. Deadly heatwaves and weak monsoon rainfall were also observed.
The severe, prolonged drought in Balochistan led to livestock losses and impacted agriculture. Drought and desertification were recorded in Sindh; heat-waves occurred in Karachi; crop stress and water scarcity affected southern Punjab. Localised river fluctuations were observed in northern Pakistan.
The year 2015-16 saw similar conditions, including continued drought-like conditions, deadly heatwaves, weak monsoon, agricultural stress and increased glacier melting.
For Pakistan, El Niño does not always mean no flood; localised flooding occurred in some areas during El Niño, mainly due to glacier melting and river overflow. This is because El Niño weakened overall monsoon patterns but caused greater rainfall irregularities. More rainfall in a short period of time led to flash floods.
Previous Super El Niño events provide only a partial indication of what this upcoming event may bring, as each El Niño differs in intensity and impacts. However, compared to the Super El Niño episodes of 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16, societies and ecosystems today may be both better prepared in some respects and more vulnerable in others to its potential consequences.
By examining all three recorded Super El Niño events together with climate model projections, researchers have concluded that events of this magnitude greatly raise the risk of “climate regime shifts” — sudden and long-lasting changes in temperature patterns, sea surface conditions and soil moisture that may persist for years or even decades, even after the El Niño event has subsided.
This suggests that the impacts of a potential 2026 Super El Niño may not fully disappear once Pacific Ocean temperatures return to normal, as some environmental and climatic changes could become long-lasting or permanent. The magnitude and evolving pattern of conditions emerging in the Pacific are highly unusual. They are unfolding within a climate system that is already warmer than at any time since the beginning of the industrial era.
The last Super El Niño transformed weather patterns and disrupted economies across the globe. Many of its impacts persisted well beyond the cooling of the Pacific Ocean. As another intense El Niño begins to emerge, attention is turning to what lies ahead for hundreds of millions of people and some of the world’s most vulnerable ecosystems.
At this stage, governments must treat this as a serious warning and prioritise medium- to long-term strategies focused on water conservation, climate-resilient infrastructure and strengthening the adaptive capacity of local communities.
Pakistan urgently needs to formulate comprehensive heat adaptation plans, promote the use of climate-resilient seeds among farmers, accelerate the implementation of the Recharge Pakistan Programme and facilitate greater access to solar energy systems to help communities cope with intensifying heatwaves.
In addition, nature-based solutions — particularly large-scale plantation of indigenous tree species across the country — should be expanded. Attention must also be given to managing climate-induced migration, which is likely to intensify as a consequence of a potential Super El Niño event.
Maryam Shabbir Abbasi is a US based environmentalist and a visiting associate research fellow with the Sustainable Development Policy Institute.
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