Pakistan’s provisional real GDP growth for FY 2026 was 3.7 percent. Its population grew by 2.07 percent. Average output per person, therefore, rose by about 1.6 percent. However, the averages are deceptive. Richer households capture more of the gain through assets, formal jobs and market access. Poor households lose part of it to school fees, health expenses, energy bills, unsafe water and climate shocks. The GDP tells us little unless we test it against population: how many people share it; who captures it; and who pays for its erosion.
Economists start with workers, machines, land and capital as the major factors of production. Population influences each channel. An increase in population means a larger workforce, more consumers and more claimants for both natural resources and public/ private sector services.
A larger workforce raises output when firms invest, power companies supply energy, banks finance enterprises and markets absorb goods. When investment lags, power costs rise and markets stay narrow, the workforce loses value. Young people then enter unpaid family work, daily wage labour, informal trade or unemployment.
Children follow the same logic. A child becomes a future income when their food security, health, education and employment are taken care of. When resources grow more slowly than the population, each additional child stretches household income and public spending. Parents spend more. Teachers handle crowded classrooms. Clinics treat more patients with thin staff. Family land divides into smaller plots.
Pakistan’s age profile makes this question urgent. Nearly 40 percent of its population is in the 0-14 age group; 66 percent is below 30. This cohort has the potential to boost future income provided the government invests in social sector development as a form of growth investment.
However, government budgets work in the opposite order.
Debt servicing, defence and day-to-day government expenses take priority. Development receives what remains. As a result of this compromise, the youth bulge can be seen in queues for jobs, subsidies and visas (ten years later).
The labour market shows the gap between numbers and dividends. Agriculture employs 33.1 percent of workers; manufacturing 14.8 percent; and services 41.2 percent. A shift from farms to cities can raise income when manufacturers and service providers hire workers on better terms. It reduces welfare when young workers end in informal sector or when there are no jobs at all. Unplanned urbanisation in this process hits the meagre development funds available at subnational level.
What population is too much for a country is determined by its ability to provide basic necessities of life—especially health and education to its newborns. UNICEF estimates that 25.1 million Pakistani children aged five to 16 are out of school (35 percent of that age group). The World Bank says a child born in Pakistan will reach only 41 percent of their possible productivity if schooling and health remain incomplete. It also cites 40 percent stunting among children under five. These figures reflect the correlation between Pakistan’s population growth and its economic growth.
Women carry much of the demographic cost inside the home. The Labour Force Survey found 117.4 million working-age people doing unpaid domestic and care work in 2024. Women made up 66.7 million of them. More births add cooking, cleaning, childcare and elder care hours. They cut paid work, household income and savings.
Bangladesh offers a useful regional comparison. World Bank data show that Bangladesh cut extreme poverty from 12.2 percent to 5.6 percent and moderate poverty from 37.1 percent to 18.7 percent between 2010 and 2022. Smaller families gave parents more money and time to each child. Garment jobs, girls’ schools, rural health workers, NGOs, remittances and exports then turned that room into wages.
Here it is pertinent to acknowledge that fewer births create no factory and no income-generating opportunity. But they create room for policies and plans to work.
Pakistan can still use its young population. It needs to focus on sectors that hire millions of people. World Bank president Ajay Banga has said Pakistan must create 2.5 million to 3 million jobs a year or 25 million to 30 million jobs over a decade. The sectors he identified as critical for employment included infrastructure, primary healthcare, tourism and small-scale agriculture.
That is easier said than done. The scarcity of resources at home is a push factor. Many emigrate in search of greener pastures.
Migration can add income when workers leave with skills and rights. Pakistan registered 762,499 workers for overseas employment in 2025. NAVTTC, provinces and recruiters should train nurses, electricians, welders, drivers, caregivers, hotel staff and solar technicians for named labour markets. They should also build a cadre of digitally literate service workers for remote accounts, coding support, design, marketing, logistics and repair platforms. A worker who leaves with a certificate and enforceable contract raises family income.
The Council of Common Interests should approve a ten-year population and productivity compact before the next NFC Award. The compact should link part of federal transfers to verified gains in the poorest districts: fewer reproductive health gaps; more girls in secondary school; more children screened for stunting; and more young people placed in certified apprenticeships. Provinces should publish their performance by tehsil every year. Independent impact assessment agencies should verify results using district-level data and use the data to identify how to balance population growth and income growth.
Until such a balance is achieved, families should choose fewer births.
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