On September 18, fifteen diplomats filed into a closed room at UN Headquarters and marked a paper ballot for each candidate. Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica emerged from the Security Council's third straw poll with nine ‘encourage’ votes, regaining the lead from Guyana's Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, who received eight.
They have occupied the top two places in all three rounds, keeping alive the possibility that the UN could appoint its first woman secretary-general, and its first from Latin America and the Caribbean since Javier Pérez de Cuéllar left office in 1991.
The result also carried a warning. Grynspan's ‘discourage’ votes rose from one in July to five; Rodrigues-Birkett's rose from two to six. A successful candidate needs at least nine votes and no veto from any of the Security Council's five permanent members. But the ballots have not yet distinguished P5 votes from those of the ten elected members. The leaked totals show growing opposition but don't reveal whether either frontrunner has encountered a veto. That uncertainty measures both how far the UN has opened the selection and how much power remains protected from scrutiny.
The gender breakthrough is real. All nine secretaries-general since 1945 have been men. Five of the eight candidates who entered this year's contest were women. Tracking by the Global Network of Women Peacebuilders, NYU's Center for Global Affairs and the 1 for 8 Billion campaign found that government support for a woman rose from 46 states by mid-2025 to 112 by March 2026.
But broader support does not alter who chooses. Article 97 of the UN Charter gives the General Assembly the power to appoint the secretary-general only on the Security Council's recommendation. The Council submits one name, chosen in private and subject to a veto by China, France, Russia, the UK or the US. The Assembly representing 193 states receives the result only after the Council has decided.
Reforms since 2015 have made candidates more visible. They publish CVs and vision statements, face public General Assembly dialogues and, under resolution 79/327, disclose campaign financing. These reforms give member states and civil society more information, but they stop at the Council door. Proposals to have the Council recommend more than one candidate, allow General Assembly straw polls or establish a formal civil-society role did not survive negotiations. Gender reform met the same resistance. In 2021, P5 objections watered stronger language on appointing a woman down to a passive invitation that states "bear this in mind”. In 2025, proposals to require member states to nominate only women were reduced to resolution 79/327's non-binding request that they "strongly consider" women candidates. The reforms expose the candidates; they do not expose the veto-holders.
Seven women entered the 2016 race, but the Council's private polling steadily removed them from contention. This year, Grynspan and Rodrigues-Birkett have led every round, rebutting any suggestion that appointing a woman would require overlooking merit or political support.
Yet representation alone cannot correct a system built around unequal state power. Nobel laureate Jody Williams and the Global Network of Women Peacebuilders' Mavic Cabrera-Balleza have argued that a woman is not enough on its own: the UN needs a feminist leader who treats gender equality as a governing principle. But a woman secretary-general would still take office through a process in which five governments can block her without publicly defending their decision.
The third poll makes this contradiction harder to ignore. Its two leaders are women from the Global South, while the source of the opposition remains concealed. Until colour-coded ballots distinguish permanent-member votes, no one outside the Council can know whether this apparent breakthrough aligns with P5 preferences or is approaching a veto. Transparency applied only to candidates cannot make the selection transparent.
Secrecy also shields bargaining over the institution the winner will lead. A June 2026 investigation by the 1 for 8 Billion campaign, based on more than 40 interviews, reported evidence that all five permanent members have sought commitments on senior UN appointments in exchange for support. A secretary-general who reaches office owing positions to powerful capitals may find it harder to pursue reforms or make merit-based appointments.
Four women candidates -- Michelle Bachelet, María Fernanda Espinosa, Grynspan and Rodrigues-Birkett -- pledged not to trade appointments for votes. Bachelet has since withdrawn, but the pledge remains a useful test. Grossi said the principles were reasonable but that, as head of the IAEA, he could commit only to standards adopted by its governing bodies. Grynspan stepped away from UNCTAD under the joint letter's conflict-of-interest guidance, while Grossi remained at the IAEA, calling withdrawal a dereliction of duty.
Pakistan is not merely watching. As one of the Security Council's ten elected members, it casts a ballot in every straw poll. Its public position has been less specific than those of Denmark, Greece, Latvia, Bahrain and Liberia. Pakistan has told the Council that peace built without women rests on fragile ground, deployed Female Engagement Teams in UN peacekeeping missions and elected women as prime minister and speaker of the National Assembly. Those positions give it a basis to press for both a woman secretary-general and a process that does not ask the wider membership to accept an unexplained P5 verdict.
The General Assembly has more formal power than it usually exercises. Appointment requires a simple majority, roughly 97 of 193 members. The 112 states already recorded as supporting a woman would clear that threshold if the question reached a vote. In practice, the Assembly has always appointed the secretary-general by acclamation and has never rejected the Council's nominee. It has nevertheless shaped outcomes: in the 1990s, the Africa Group signalled that it would not accept a non-African candidate before the selections of Boutros Boutros-Ghali and Kofi Annan. A coalition around gender and transparency could nevertheless signal that the wider membership will not accept another opaque, lowest-common-denominator choice.
The question is no longer whether qualified women can lead the field; three polls have answered that. It is whether five states will be allowed to narrow that field in secret, possibly veto its leaders and then present one name for approval. Electing the first woman secretary-general would be historic. If she reaches office through the same hidden bargains, it will also show the limits of reform.
By: Ali Mujahid, Ayesha Naeem
The writers are researchers at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), Islamabad.
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