Pakistan will require an estimated $565 billion in investment by 2035 to fulfil its climate commitments, but mounting debt repayments and inadequate international financing are threatening its ability to meet those targets, a government minister said Wednesday (21 October).
State Minister for Climate Change Dr Shezra Mansab Ali Khan Kharal said the financial constraints underscored the need for Pakistan to establish clear negotiating priorities on adaptation funding, loss and damage, and the growing climate threats facing its mountainous regions.
Speaking at a roundtable titled “Pre-COP31 Multi-stakeholder Consultation” ahead of the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP31) in Antalya, Türkiye, Kharal called for an evidence-based national position to guide the country’s participation in the negotiations.
Under its third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), submitted in September 2025, Pakistan has pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50 percent against projected levels by 2035.
The target includes an unconditional reduction of 17 percent, with a further 33 percent dependent on international financial support.
However, more than 60 percent of government revenues are being directed towards debt servicing, severely restricting the country’s ability to finance climate measures through domestic resources, the minister said.
“The gap between those two things is what our negotiators are set to close,” Kharal said, referring to the disparity between Pakistan’s climate ambitions and the funding available to achieve them.
With several ministries working to finalise Pakistan’s negotiating position for COP31, she acknowledged that no formal system currently exists to incorporate evidence and recommendations from provincial institutions, universities, youth organisations and climate-affected communities.
The consultation, she said, provided an opportunity for stakeholders to influence the country’s negotiating priorities before the official position was finalised, rather than submitting recommendations after the delegation returned.
Adaptation finance emerged as a central concern, particularly the uncertainty surrounding an earlier international commitment to triple adaptation funding by 2035.
Kharal said the agreed text had failed to identify the baseline from which the increase would be calculated, raising questions about the actual financial resources vulnerable countries could expect to receive.
She noted that adaptation finance stood at $26 billion in 2023, compared with a commitment to reach $40 billion by 2026, while assessed annual financing needs amounted to $310 billion.
The choice of baseline would determine whether the promised increase delivered substantial additional funding for climate-vulnerable countries, including Pakistan, she said.
The minister also highlighted the substantial gap between demand for assistance from the Fund for responding to Loss and Damage and the resources available for distribution.
According to Kharal, the fund had received 176 eligible proposals from 119 countries requesting a combined $2.8 billion, against just $342 million available during its pilot phase.
Pakistan has submitted three funding requests worth a total of $58 million, covering agricultural recovery, climate-resilient healthcare systems in Balochistan and the restoration of fisheries damaged by flooding in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
None of Pakistan’s proposals had received an allocation, with the fund’s initial financing decisions expected in December, following COP31.
Kharal said 50 percent of the fund’s resources had been earmarked for least developed countries and small island developing states, leaving Pakistan to compete with other developing nations outside those groups for the remaining funds.
She called on participants to prepare a carefully reasoned position on the allocation arrangements for consideration by Pakistan’s climate negotiators.
Beyond financing, the minister identified the accelerating loss of glaciers and the vulnerability of mountain communities as major priorities for the upcoming negotiations.
Pakistan’s NDC projections indicate that accelerated glacial melting could reduce water flows in the Indus River system by 20 to 30 percent by 2050, she said.
Mountainous areas including Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral face particular climate threats that are not adequately captured by existing classifications under the international climate convention.
Kharal noted that glacial lake outburst floods present a complex challenge for climate policy because they involve sudden disasters arising from gradual environmental changes.
Such characteristics can create difficulties in classifying the events and determining access to international climate financing.
Referring to a dialogue on mountains and climate change held in Bonn in June, she called for stronger recognition of the specific vulnerabilities of mountain communities in international climate agreements.
Youth participation in climate diplomacy was another issue raised during the consultation.
Kharal urged stakeholders to put forward practical measures to strengthen youth representation within Pakistan’s official COP delegation, arguing that general commitments to inclusivity would achieve little without clear arrangements.
Specific proposals should address the number of young delegates, how they would be nominated and the status they would hold within the delegation, she said.
With most of Pakistan’s population aged under 30, the minister observed that the composition of official delegations did not adequately represent the country’s demographic structure.
She encouraged participants to propose concrete arrangements rather than make broad appeals for greater youth involvement.
Regarding the consultation’s final recommendations, Kharal clarified that the resulting document would remain the collective work of participants and that its formal adoption by the government could not be guaranteed.
Nevertheless, she assured attendees that the government would review the document and share it with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
The recommendations could still inform the negotiating process, she said, as Pakistan’s official COP31 brief had not yet been finalised.
Kharal also stressed that the precise wording of international climate agreements could have significant implications for the availability and delivery of financing.
She highlighted the distinction between commitments to provide funding and those to mobilise financial resources, warning that differences in terminology could affect how international pledges were implemented.
Similarly, explicitly identifying particular climate hazards in negotiated decisions could influence whether affected countries became eligible for financial assistance.
The minister urged participants to produce a jointly developed, evidence-based set of recommendations capable of strengthening Pakistan’s negotiating position at COP31, particularly on climate finance, adaptation and the vulnerabilities of communities facing intensifying climate risks.
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