Confidence in global climate cooperation is being tested well before negotiators take their seats in Antalya for COP31.
The US’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement has been accompanied by a more cautious tone in parts of the international climate debate, including among some countries that maintain close strategic relations with Washington. This gradual softening of the narrative warrants attention, given how broader diplomatic considerations have begun to shape the political importance attached to climate action.
For Pakistan, this shift is unfolding against loss and damage the country has witnessed across successive years. The super floods of 2022, with estimated losses of $30 billion, were followed by another devastating flood season in 2025, when more than 1,000 people died and preliminary economic losses reached Rs 822 billion. Recovery has repeatedly meant rebuilding assets before households regain secure income, leaving the country with less room to pursue development that can withstand the next shock.
The pressure continued in 2026, as heatwaves disrupted daily life and glacial lake outburst floods damaged mountain communities. In June, the heat index crossed 51 degrees Celsius in many cities, while July’s outburst in Ghizer and other parts of Gilgit-Baltistan swept away bridges, damaged homes and forced people to migrate. These events affected different places, yet each disrupted the services people rely on to work and stay connected.
Pakistan’s negotiating position needs to reflect this accumulation of risk, which extends well beyond the aftermath of a single flood. Now El Nino has added another warning that deserves to shape decisions before it becomes an emergency. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that the current event could reach unprecedented strength, with effects extending beyond its expected peak near the end of 2026.
For Pakistan, the immediate task is to use national forecasts to guide decisions about winter crops and water management, while preparing communities for changing conditions. A warning matters when it changes what governments do; it does not after the disaster has occurred. El Nino is part of a natural cycle unfolding in a warmer world, making national forecasts essential to identifying where early action can prevent avoidable losses.
These pressures should anchor our climate diplomacy as international priorities change. Pakistan’s relationships with major powers can help strengthen its response, while its own exposure must continue to determine the urgency of that response. A country whose development is repeatedly interrupted by extreme weather has a compelling national interest in keeping climate action central to its foreign policy.
The recent impasse at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) makes that consistency even more important. Its October 2026 Addis Ababa session was suspended without agreement on the timetable for the Seventh Assessment Report (AR7) or the budget to support it. Its significance lies in the fact that developing and vulnerable countries are entitled to seek research that reflects their circumstances, while also needing the findings in time to influence decisions. When agreement over evidence delivery becomes so difficult, vulnerable countries have reason to defend the institutions through which their risks gain international recognition.
The United Nations Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report 2026 reinforces this concern, reporting that current policies point to 2.8 degrees Celsius of warming this century, while full delivery of national pledges would limit warming to 2.6 degrees above preindustrial levels. For Pakistan, these projections describe a future in which protecting existing development becomes harder. Diplomatic compromise must therefore be weighed against the room our people will have to adapt as temperatures continue to rise.
Turkiye and Australia therefore face a demanding test at COP31, with Turkiye hosting the conference and Australia leading negotiations. Their success will depend on whether governments leave Antalya more confident that cooperation can deliver protection. Another round of reassuring statements will have limited value to countries already diverting development spending towards recovery. The task is to make continued participation worthwhile by showing that commitments will translate into support where exposure is greatest.
The changing politics becomes visible when the conversation turns to finance disbursement by the Global North. The goal of at least $300 billion annually by 2035, with developed countries taking the lead, must be judged against this reality. Pakistan should press for clarity about how much support will arrive as grants and how quickly it can be used. Countries facing repeated losses need the means to reduce their exposure before borrowing again to rebuild. Finance that arrives too late, or deepens debt, leaves the underlying vulnerability largely intact.
China’s growing role also offers opportunities Pakistan should pursue deliberately. Its expansion of renewable energy has strengthened its standing in climate diplomacy, while access to affordable technology has become increasingly important to developing countries. Our close relationship can support a transition that improves economic security and builds domestic capability. The broader diplomatic opportunity is to strengthen cooperation on climate action while consistently calling for greater ambition from all major emitters.
Nepal’s August disaster makes a stronger case for regional cooperation. The flood in Rasuwa showed how destruction originating high in the mountains can sever connections far downstream. Pakistan’s exposed valleys give it a clear interest in sharing warnings and treating mountain safety as a common concern, even when wider diplomatic relations remain difficult. That shared exposure should also inform how we pursue international support for adaptation.
That consistency should be visible in how Pakistan prepares for negotiations. A delegation needs a mandate that is understood across government and sustained beyond a single conference. By working through the G77 and China, Pakistan can build support with countries facing comparable pressures while keeping its priorities clear when compromises are proposed. Climate diplomacy requires sustained political attention, because internationally agreed terms shape what governments can afford to protect at home. Therefore, adaptation should remain central to that mandate, with a stronger demand for programme-based financing that supports implementation over several years.
A district cannot protect its essential services through an isolated project that ends before its institutions can sustain the work. Provincial adaptation plans need dependable funding, while communities recovering from destruction need timely and accessible support for loss and damage. Pakistan’s negotiating position should reflect the practical conditions under which protection must be delivered.
Our argument abroad will also depend on the choices made at home. The El Nino warning should already be informing preparedness, while our experience of successive climate shocks should influence where public money is spent. Otherwise, each disaster risks becoming another expensive reminder that knowing the danger and acting on it remain disconnected. This is why the public narrative matters. Scrutiny of climate spending is necessary, and government should answer questions about projects that fail to protect people.
Conspiracy claims about climate change, however, must never acquire legitimacy within public policy. They make neglect easier to justify while leaving communities exposed to consequences that political arguments cannot remove. Pakistan needs a public debate that demands better action without allowing frustration over poor governance to discredit established science.
As Antalya approaches, Pakistan should draw confidence from the clarity of its own interests. Successive disasters have shown how quickly development can be reversed, while El Nino offers another opportunity to act before further disruption.
Our partnerships can strengthen that response, provided our climate position reflects the responsibility to protect progress. Those relationships will evolve, but the responsibility to protect Pakistan’s development will remain with us.
The writer is an environmental scientist and leads the ecological sustainability and circular economy programme at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), Islamabad.
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