Pakistan Political Barometer Phase II (A Study of Public Opinion - Voters Preferences and Political Parties' Popularity across Pakistan)

Pakistan Political Barometer Phase II (A Study of Public Opinion - Voters Preferences and Political Parties' Popularity across Pakistan)

Partner: Heinrich Boll Stiftung (HBS) & Monthly Herald

Duration: March 2013 to May 2013

Locale:  Select districts of KP, Balochistan, Sindh, Punjab

Team Member: Dr Abid Qaiyum Suleri

After the successful completion of the first study on political barometer, a second study was carried out, two weeks prior to the election 2013. The second phase looked at the rise and fall in popularity of political parties across the four provinces of Pakistan. The study compared voter preferences and the popularity of political parties in 2008 and 2013. The analysis took into account provincial, regional, rural, urban, gender, and age specific preferences. Based on the respondents voting choices in 2013 variations in the popularity of political parties were examined. The study also examined as to how these variations had affected the political landscape since 2008. A significant change in the country's political landscape clearly emerged from the analysis.

The respondents included 56% from Punjab, 23% from Sindh, 5% from Balochistan, and 16% from KP. Registered voters in each province were divided into rural and urban populations, i.e. to 67% and 33% respectively. A questionnaire was designed to gauge the perceptions and preferences of voters of different age groups across the four provinces.

Objectives

• To make a comparative analysis of peoples voting perceptions with respect to region, locality (urban and rural), gender (male and female),and age
• To determine the rise and fall in political parties popularity in the 2013 General Elections

Findings

• In the 2008 elections, 45.1% respondents voted for PPP, 29.2% for PML-N, 7.7% for PML-Q, 3.1% for ANP, 4% for JUI-F, and 1.2% for MQM.
•  A week before the general election, the support for PPP reduced to 27%. PML-N gained 4% in popularity among the respondents, as 33% expressed the intention to vote for PML-N in the 2013 general election. PTI, which boycotted the 2008 elections, seemed to have created a huge dent in PPP's vote bank, according to the survey. 22% respondents indicated that they would vote for PTI in 2013 elections. The inclusive in support for PTI and PML-N when compared with the 2008 polls represents a net loss for PPP. JI appeared to be another winner, gaining 3% in political preferences votes and emerging as the 4th most popular party among the respondents. PML-Q and ANP lost 5.8% and 2% in popularity among voters respectively as compared to their votes in the 2008 elections. MQM support seems to be the most stable, having gained 0.6% popularity according to our 2013 survey.
• The results of the study on voters preference were in close conjunction with the results of the election 2013 hence underscoring the reliability of the perception survey.