event details - The Afghanistan Impact - Security threats to Pakistan

Concept Note: The geography and demography together ensure that Afghanistan and Pakistan remain tied in luck. Any development in Afghanistan has an impact on Pakistan, unfortunately those developments are rarely positive. When Taliban took over Afghanistan on August 15th Pakistan was as apprehensive as any other country owing to the track record of the group, but relieved albeit, to have finally being rid of a heavily influenced regime in its neighborhood that was willing to go lengths to harm Pakistan. Unlike other countries and despite its welcoming gesture, Pakistan’s apprehension of the Taliban had various angles to it. Pakistan has had a long struggle with religious extremism; there are still many in the country who believes in the righteousness of Taliban’s cause and celebrated Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan as an ideological victory. This is alarming for Pakistan that follows a western model of democracy and is struggling to maintain a more religiously inclusive and tolerant social system. Those accused of terrorism in the country have found safe havens in the neighboring Afghanistan, these people have established their roots in the country and built connections over the years. While the government is fully committed to border fencing, it is also a reality that fully securing the border to seize any illegal cross-border activity is practically not possible considering the linkages between the people and businesses. With the revival of the ideology and the supposed presence of sleeper cells, eliminating and restraining these factors is also a challenge. Recent skirmishes on the border also indicate that Afghan Taliban though on good terms with the country maintains a different stance on Durand line. Also, an important fact worth considering here is that Afghan Taliban are not one organized group but have multiple fractions some of which’s leadership also hold a grudge against Pakistan for supporting USA in ousting them in 2001.

These factors in view of the economic situation of a country that for most of its recent history has been a war economy is another reason to be alarmed. The food and livelihood insecurity are not just likely to aggravate the existing divides within the country but also result in a refugee influx to the neighboring countries, especially Iran and Pakistan, both of which are going through an economic crisis. In view of the above point SDPI aspires to discuss and seek policy-oriented responses on the following questions. 1. What measures have Pakistan taken so far to restrain the ideological spillover after the success of Taliban in Afghanistan? 2. How fruitful are the negotiations on the handing over of TTP fugitives to Pakistan? 3. How prepared are we to handle the spillover of a humanitarian crises in Afghanistan?

Moderator: Dr. Abid Qaiyum Suleri, Executive Director, SDPI
Panelists:
- Ms. Andaleeb Abbas, Parliamentary Secretary on Foreign Affairs (TBC)
- Ambassador Muhammad Ayaz Wazir, Former Pakistan’s ambassador to Afghanistan
- Brig. Rtd Mehmood Shah, Security and Defense Analyst
- Mr. Zahid Hussain, Senior Journalist, and author of the book, “No-Win War: Paradox of US- Pakistan relations in Afghanistan's shadow”
 

Meeting Link: https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_2-We56TZTXmKs0fwEpKVkg