To strengthen Policy Narrative, Commitment for Improved Investment and Recovery packages to make transition towards Renewable Energy and Climate Resilience in Pakistan

To strengthen Policy Narrative, Commitment for Improved Investment and Recovery packages to make transition towards Renewable Energy and Climate Resilience in Pakistan

Partner/Donor: European Climate Foundation

Duration: November 2020 to November 2021

Team Members: Dr. Abid Q. Suleri, Dr. Hina Aslam, Dr. Sajid Amin, Ahad Nazir, Ubaid Ur Rehman Zia, Abdullah Khalid, Ayesha Ilyas

Introduction: Pakistan plans to expand energy production from coal to more than double (7615 MW) from its current operating capacity (3770MW). Energy production from coal is a continuing trend which remained in single digit percentage over the last two decades, however jumped in 2018 to 12.7% coal consumption in the energy mix after the CPEC. With the already fossil fuel-dominated energy mix, further expansions will make it difficult for the country to align with PA goals.  The utilisation of renewable energy sources is very limited, with installed capacities at approximately 1.1% in 2018, although the country has high renewable energy potential.  Air pollution is another issue of concern in Pakistan, with deaths attributed to air pollution estimated to about 128 000 in 2017 (State of Global Air, 2019). It is important to understand that Pakistan is at cross-roads. According to estimates of the Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL), Pakistan's indigenous oil reserves will exhaust by 2025, and Pakistan will run out of domestic sources of natural gas by 2030.This necessitates the need for diversification of the current fuel mix and reduce the power generation cost per unit. In this backdrop, Pakistan has drafted Alternate and Renewable Energy (ARE) Policy 2019. ARE 2019 aims to create a conducive environment for the sustainable growth of ARE Sector in Pakistan. Under the new draft policy, Pakistan intends to have 20% of its generation capacity as ARE technologies by 2025 and 30% by 2030 (20X25 and 30X30 target). Thus, the research carried out under this project, and advocacy carried out shall naturally garner support from the relevant government institutions such as Ministry of Energy, Alternate Energy Development Board, and Ministry of Climate Change to achieve the target set in the new policy.

Objectives: Overall objective of the project is to strengthen policy narrative, commitment for the improved investment and recovery packages to make transition towards renewable energy and climate resilience in Pakistan Through exploratory research and policy outreach activities, SDPI aims to achieve following objectives:

• Identifying potential and barriers to green recovery in Pakistan
• Devising policy recommendations for key sectors including energy, transport, and industry
• Sensitizing the stakeholders such as executives and legislatures, media, private sector, etc. on indebtedness challenges and potential to move towards green sectors
• Building stakeholders coordination and engagement mechanism to take forward collective efforts for clean and green energy agenda in national discourse

Outputs: The major outputs envisaged for the project include:

1. Research reports focusing on analysis of the impact of the health and economic crisis for future growth trajectories and energy sector consumption and growth for Pakistan including:
   • Analysis of current levels of indebtedness to multilateral and bilateral actors and implications for future growth and development and identify avenues for swapping debt with investment in green sectors.
   • Analysis of stabilisation/stimulus packages already announced by government and/or donors and their impacts on furthering or slowing the energy transition including analysis of bailouts and handouts to the fossil fuel industry.
   • Formulation of real economy recommendations for stimulus and investment in key sectors impacting climate such as transport, energy, and industry which should include clear recommendations for recovery packages that will stimulate growth, jobs and investment while building in climate resilience and helping to transition economies away from fossil fuels and towards clean energy.
2. Based on the evidence created the following meetings will be conducted in the period of the project:

• 4 Quarterly Roundtable Meetings
• 6 Meetings with Think Tanks
• 4 Meetings with media
• 4 Meetings with Finance and Energy Experts
• 3 Green Parliamentarian Caucus meetings
• 4 Talk Shows

Status:  Completed